The Hard Right Edge
In what ways can you control risk when you trade?
Mark Seleznov
The Risk Parameter is the amount of money you are willing to risk in a trade.
Assume you are trading 1,000 shares of a stock.
A scalper trader may have a risk tolerance of 1/8 - 1/4 of a point.
A pattern trader may need to open trading Parameters to 1/2-1 point.
A position trader may have a Parameter in his entry of 1-2 points.
However, these Parameters will certainly vary depending on the stock you are
trading and the Time Frame.
Many Day Traders will use 5 Minute bar charts. I try to determine the Range of
the Stock and therefore the volatility of the stocks that I trade. I look at 2
range calculations. First, I look at the typical 5 minute bar High to low range. Second, I look at the Daily High to Low range.
Regardless of the style of trading that you are using, the risk or Parameter
needed in each of these stocks is completely different.
Let's look at how this may effect a traditional pattern play on a stock. If
your stock is trading in a sideways pattern for 2 hours and you believe a break
will occur to the upside. You may have a Parameter risk to the bottom of the
sideways channel
In one stock, the channel may be 3/8 of a point. That is a manageable risk and
a trade you may take often as the breaks can be explosive and profitable. If
you have 3-4 losers in a row, it won't hurt your capital as much as a large
ranging stock. In another stock, the trading channel may be 2 points wide. Playing the
breakout and risking 2 points creates a greater degree of risk. If you have 3-4
losers in a row, it can severally damage your capital. If you have a large
trading account and can stomach this kind of volatility, then it is OK. Most
traders can not. It is fun to play high volatility stocks. But, before you do, understand the
risks and effects that can occur to your trading capital.
I like to use a general 3-1 ratio on my Parameters. For example, if I am going
to risk 1/8 of a point, I want to make 3/8 of a point. If I have to risk 1/2of a
point, I would like to see potential of 1 1/2 points. On position trades, if I
risk 2 points, I would like to see the possibility of 6 points on that trade.
The Hard Right Edge
What trading strategies work with a Level II screen?
Mark Seleznov
I use Level 2 Market Maker screens primarily as a way to know how to execute
trade routes, not to tell me if a stock is going up or down. Several years ago, the information displayed on Level 2 Market Maker screen was much more reliable than they are today. Most of the time, the information on Market Makers is unreliable. This is particularly true of some of your more active stocks like DELL, INTC, MSFT and CSCO.
I tell people to think about Level 2 Market Maker postings as a poker game. Do
you show your hand to your opponents in poker? Of course you do not. Why would
the Market Makers be honest about the amount of stock they want to buy or sell? Many times you will see one Market Maker just sit on the Bid advertising that he has 1,000 shares to buy and he is hit by everyone and just keeps buying. Another time, you will see another Market Maker just sitting on the offer while prints of thousands go off. He is selling not only on the SOES system, but also
selling thousands of shares on Selectnet or other private systems.
The only truth is in the charts and the time and sales. The chart shows you the
reality of what buying and selling is actually going on. The trades show the
actual trades that took place. The Level 2 Market Marker posting is a story that someone wants to paint for you to see.
Try it tomorrow in Dell. How many times will you see 10-15 Market Makers on the
offer and think, WOW there must be resistance at that level. Only to watch the
stock trade thousands and thousands of shares through that price and run a point
higher. Or see 15 Market Makers bidding at the whole number, only to see it
break down and run a point lower.
A chart is a chart. Trading is trading. Don't count on Level 2 screens to tell
you the whole story. Learn to read charts, technical analysis, trading and risk management. In my
opinion, these are the keys to successful trading. These are the keys regardless if you are trading wheat, gold, options, T-Bonds, DELL, or AMZN. SOES, ECN's, and Level 2 is a way to execute trades, Level 2 is not a system of
trading.
The Hard Right Edge
How do you determine when to take your profits?
Mark Seleznov
Many traders fail to follow one of the cardinal rules of trading, "Let your
profits Run". I hear comments like, "you will never go broke taking a profit". Well, that is correct if you only had profits. But we all have losses. Your best traders
often have more losses than winners, but the losses are small. I try to let my profits run. It is not easy in this day of big wiggles in stocks, but when you catch a trend, ride it.
In my opinion, you need to catch some big winners. It is very difficult to trade for 1/4 point winners while risking 1/4.
Look at your risk vs. reward before entering a trade. Try to anticipate a 3-1-risk reward ratio. If you risk 5/16 on a trade, can you make a full point if the stock does what you think? If the answer is yes, I would take the trade. If resistance is only 3/8 of a point away, I would pass on the trade. If you are going to risk 1 full point, look for at least 3 points in profit.
The volatility of the Internet stocks requires you to risk large amounts. It is difficult to trade AMZN or YHOO and risk only 3/8.